Sun & IBM: Speculation

The UNIX world is ablaze with speculation about the news that IBM wants to acquire Sun. Rumors of acquisition have been floating around for a long time, but the fact that institutional investors help almost double JAVA shares means we should take this one very seriously.

To be frank, I’m not sure how to feel about it. I’ll try and play both sides therefore.

On one hand, IBM’s hardware business has a great many advantages over Sun’s. Pairing the hardware lines of the two companies, especially if it potentially meant bringing Solaris to POWER, could be a very big win. One of the things I miss about Sun is the big and beefy midrange systems of yesteryear… running Solaris on an IBM 595 would be amazing. However, IBM is a company that knows how to manage multiple independent product lines, such as it has with OS/400 and the z/OS lines running along with the Windows and AIX lines. They may simply slot SPARC as another parallel line and not bother replacing AIX with Solaris.

IBM certainly would be happy to not just get its hands on Sun’s in-house engineering but also on the variety of acquisitions its made, such as MySQL, Lustre, etc. Obviously Java is the great prize and probly more interesting to IBM than the hardware. As for middleware, I’d think they’d gut the stack, taking gems such as Directory Server and Glassfish, then tossing other bits aside.

On the other hand, the corporate cultures couldn’t be more different. Sun’s internal management has systemic problems that no RIF can seem to shake loose but I don’t know the management structure at IBM and it may get worse not better. Would IBM continue to embrace the liberal try-and-buy model Sun is using or honor all its various communities? Given so many diverse efforts there are a lot of people bound to get crunched as the two giants collide.

Sun and IBM have simply competed too long for there not to be pain. NetBeans vs Eclipse. Solaris vs AIX. SPARC vs POWER. There is a very long list of competing technologies and just because we (as Sun enthusiasts) prefer one technology over another doesn’t mean IBM will agree on all counts.

Besides… from Sun purple to IBM blue? Ick.

Somewhat naturally, I’m not happy with the proposition, but as I alluded to, I can’t rule it out entirely. On one extreme I see Sun ending up like SGI, on a long slow death march… but frankly, Sun has way too much going for it, if they really had to get super lean and mean they would be a stronger player than ever, so thats out. On the other extreme is Sun being acquired and being raped in the way that Cray was by (ironically) SGI…. IBM takes everything good and useful and then discards the corpse. But, again, Sun has too much of value in too many areas, I don’t see that happening either.

I think the most interesting potential outcome is that of Sun becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of IBM. So Sun stays Sun but under the wings of IBM. That is not such a bad future, especially because it wouldn’t necessarily lead to the technology conflicts… IBM could play the game from both sides of the table. Whats more true is that Sun is a valuable brand… the Sun brand plus the Java business alone are worth more than they are offering. If they were to re-brand everything IBM it would really be a huge mistake. Sun could be the hip and edgy side of IBM.

The single most concerning aspect for me would be OpenSolaris’s status as open source. Our board members have continuously shrugged off authority and placed our fate into Sun’s trusting hands… but this raises the question, what if Sun wasn’t in charge anymore? Many of the original leaders in the OpenSolaris effort were interested not just in including the community in Solaris, but also ensuring their own access to Solaris regardless of what Sun did in the future.

So… we’ll see. Please add your own thoughts so we can build up a time-capsule of opinions while we’re all in the dark.

79 Responses to “Sun & IBM: Speculation”

  1. UX-admin says:

    Solaris on POWER would be awesome.

  2. Alan Pae says:

    Sun should stay as it is despite what some shareholders think should happen to it. It’s their shares and they have the right to do what they want with them since they paid for them and no made no bones about what they were going to try to do so this shouldn’t come as a big shock to anyone.

    Whether there are enough shares to make the change remains to be seen but so far nothing has been posted to suggest that Sun as an independent company has changed.

    On the other hand it wouldn’t be very hard to fork the ongoing open source projects and keep Solaris alive even if Sun is acquired and IBM decides to shut it down.

    What would be a shame is that potentially leaves only Linux as the only Unix like OS for x86 architecture.

    Even if Sun remains the same IBM has shown zero interest in porting AIX to anything other than Power. There is a project to convert Solaris to Power already so there is no gain there.

    alan

  3. Octave Orgeron says:

    Personally, I’m greatly concerned for Sun, its customers, and of course the enthusiasts. I strongly believe that Sun has the right product line-up and the right road-maps. However, I see several areas as seriously lacking..

    1. Strong leadership with a razor sharp vision. Instead, we get mixed messages and competitors like IBM dogging Sun. BTW, they’ve spent a lot of money to scary people in recent months away from Sun.
    2. Marketing! Marketing! Marketing! Sun needs TV commercials and an army of sales ppl pushing the product. I don’t see that anymore.
    3. A strong VAR channel. Sun screwed up big time when it tried to take on the business its VAR channels had. Many small Sun VARs disappeared, and guess what else.. the sales! I remember this in the 2002-2004 era. What’s really sad is that Sun recently restructured it and has pushed the business back onto the VARs that are left. Good idea, but I think it may have been too late.
    4. Not enough personnel in the right places. The recent reorg has helped somewhat, but has left some projects, PS, tech support in desperate need.
    5. xVM Server? Is it done? Is it ready? Seems like it’s stuck in Beta. Customers need a competitor to VMware.. again.. Sun dropping the ball on delivering.
    6. When will Sun supply the right management tools for all of its products? xVM OpsCenter is still a work in progress. This is what customers need, strong and effective management tools.

    Those are the real issues have plagued Sun for the past few years. Sun has a great product line-up, but poor execution and marketing.

    Selling out to IBM I think its the “weak as water” way for the executives and management to walk away from their responsibility to Sun customers and employees. What Sun management needs is a huge dose of common sense, solving the issues above is not impossible.

    My fear is that IBM will gut what they want and dump the rest into its graveyard of technology. I would not be surprised to see them price Sun products and services out of the reach of customers who will end up fleeing to Redhat, HP, Dell, etc. I sense a Tru64/VMS/Alpha moment all over again and that scares me deeply.

    I’d rather see Sun bought out by Apple or Cisco. I think both of those companies would see and understand the value of Sun products and keep them alive and manage them better. Especially Apple which wants to enter the server market, but has little experience in it. Cisco on the other hand would probably have a better grasp on that aspect and sell Sun products like crazy people on a high.

    I could be completely wrong, we’ll see next week it looks like.

  4. Marc says:

    I don’t really understand your comment about the IBM 595. What’s wrong with the Sun-Fujitsu servers like the M9000? Not that it wouldn’t be great to have solaris on those power servers too…

  5. Brett Monroe says:

    I think Sun is finally on the right path with their hardware line…though I’m not sure how I feel about their Rock plans. I think the 595 is a nice piece of hardware, it is too power hungry and too expensive. Sun’s partnering with Fujitsu for their high-end servers was a good move as I think the long term future of million-dollar servers is….bleak. Of course how long have people been saying that Mainframes were on their way out? So what do I know.

    As for Sun’s software stack, well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. It seems Sun is more interested in getting features introduced into their products and less about stability and usability. Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing all these new technologies being developed but they all seem to get integrated half-baked. I can’t tell you how many times we have tried to implement a solution using some of Solaris 10′s new features only to find out that they don’t quite work due to bugs, lack of functionality, or both (early S10 zones, zfs, and T server firmware(?!?!?) to name a few). Sun, in my opinion, needs to move some of it’s R&D money over to it’s QA devision.

    That said, I still think that a sale to IBM would be horrible. I think IBM would either flush Solaris and Sparc or port some features over to AIX and flush the rest. As for MySQL, It’s hard to say, they have DB2 which so what’s their motivation there? I hope this rumor has no truth to it. Oh and I totally agree with Octave, a Sun/Apple merger would be awesome.

  6. Leal says:

    I agree with you Ben, it’s a mix of feelings… but my concern is about the software, more especifically OpenSolaris.
    I don’t know if we have a mature community in OpenSolaris.org to handle a fork. A big community of developers is important, i do not think different, but when we already have a strong culture (like GNU), and for now, i think the quality of OpenSolaris community is highly dependant on SUN software engineers.
    But, i’m not talking about skills, i’m sure we have real hackers on our community, but my concern is about culture, process, and the experience around that code base. If that happen, i hope IBM give the OpenSolaris community the value it deserves.
    Leal.

  7. charlie schwab says:

    “What would be a shame is that potentially leaves only Linux as the only Unix like OS for x86 architecture.”

    bsd is on par with solaris

    think it will be bad news if deal goes through – mabe no deal however

    however could be good if we get some new startups based on sun source code

    some very clever people aroubd sun so i am staying optimistic

  8. jd says:

    please, Sun has not figured out how to make monye off Java, MySQL and other so called great tech stuff they have. Unless Sun can survive by selling hardware which I doubt they can, they will die slowly.

  9. Dave says:

    Everything Octave said.

  10. Vasileios Anagnostopoulos says:

    If IBM buys SUN it would be horrible. I agree with Pae. I think SUN needs more commercial push. I mean OpenSolaris is lightyears ahead of Microsoft’s offerings. Why not capitalize on it? With Intel they can have the best gaming offering, they can build compatible hardware offerings like Apple.

  11. Gary Gendel says:

    Ben,

    Sun has given me a lot to be enthusiastic with OpenSolaris and I’m willing to wait and see. Unfortunately, I still have a bad taste in my mouth after going through the GE takeover of RCA. My division of RCA was growing strongly while our competitors were taking a real beating when GE took over. All the news gushed at how GE and RCA would be a great merger without much conflict. Then GE ripped everything apart and sold RCA in pieces.

  12. Ajay says:

    I was wondering when you were going to chime in on this, Ben. Whatever problems Big Blue has, it’s clear Sun management is completely clueless. The MySQL acquisition was a horrible move and open sourcing everything is not a viable business proposition. The fact is that this acquisition is not that relevant, as Sun already gave away the crown jewels by open sourcing everything and would have died either way, alone or in Big Blue’s backyard. All that matters is the technology won’t be buried with Sun now and someone else can come up with a business model for OpenSolaris and other CDDL code, likely along the lines I outlined here: http://hybrid.jaggeri.com

  13. James Mansion says:

    Are you sure the problem here isn’t actually:

    > ‘free’ doesn’t pay the bills!

    JS talks a good talk about reaching out to a big base of potential customers, but he’s not doing very well converting them to income.

  14. H4mm3r says:

    Hi,

    From a customer’s point of view, it will be a big loss. I can see only an interest about support but multi-vendor support already exists and the crisis will increase this kind of contract. Also, it is a vision less.

    I always listen to Sun to know where I must head and show IBM to tell that I was right. Sun needs to keep its originality and its freedom.

  15. Ben,

    Sun should stay independent. The only way Sun can retain the integrity of it’s research and vision, along with freedom to improvise would be without any influence from parties which obviously have a vested interest in it’s future (or lack of it thereof).

    Besides Apple and Google, Sun is the only BIG tech company that dares to innovate. Sun’s investors should start looking beyond the quarterly disease that plagues corporate america and start looking at the long term. Sun, with it’s hardware line and Solaris/Opensolaris is an industry leader — and given a chance to thrive, they will be able to retain that edge and make it sharper.

    Best route is for Sun to go private for a few years, make some tremendous innovative products, revolutionize the market and then go public again…

  16. omar says:

    I think Sun needs to make itself better for these rumors to not rise from time to time. $3+/- for a share is pitiful compare to other tech giants like oracle, ibm, intel, msft.

    I think there are three areas that Sun has to do better in;

    Support, for past two years has been horrendous. I myself switched the service to IBM. Yes IBM has been supporting SUN products for a while now, except for IDM. I have tickets that have been open for a year now and no response from sun, not even to check on them. Every little company does this but just not sun. Not to mention no comprehensive monitoring tool as well as automated support response.

    Blade Servers, everybody is trying to save on the foot print and I know one extreme is the prime power servers but sun needs to cater, this is where HP is running away with the market especially with Itanium blades and now IBM is trying to take advantage as well with their power chips on blades. Sun’s product compare to them is really very very inferior.

    Pushing virtualization and cloud and making it the hardware of choice for the two environments.

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  18. Mikiya says:

    Sun should release all software under GPL before acquisition IMHO. That’s the only way which make all Sun software survive in the future.

  19. benr says:

    Mikiya: In these types of acquisitions, you can pull out right up until announcement… if Sun did something like that it would kill the deal.

  20. orbanla says:

    If somebody can maintain Sun’s “Vision” integrity AND help them to sell it, it is Cisco. I am still wondering why they haven’t moved yet. There is only synergies out of it. Cisco have to get into the data centre and this could a bargain/smart move.
    L.

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